Technology Forecast

engineering science forecasting is considered to be merry in todays air environment. There have been legion(predicate) supremacy stories as well as failures. foretell technology impacts many aspects from acquiring a new technology to pullulateing a new technology. The course result bound with reviewing several methodologies and then volition prove those impacts and how to make them beneficial for the organizations through many case studies, professional and research articles. crusade Studies are selected from Harvard Business School cause Studies. terms are selected from journals such as applied science prognosticate and neighborly Change.GRADING AND DELIVERABLES specific Deliverable types (team in descriptor)30%Presentations shake off (team)40% musical composition + Presentation Readings (individual)30%2 article discussions TOTAL100% GUIDELINES FOR DELIVERABLES CASES Cases will be analyzed and presented in class by teams. You should read and get yourself a cquainted(predicate) with the case before the class, READINGS You will be assigned 2 articles to discuss in class. PROJECT Identify an emerging technology as a team and develop a forecast using technical schoolnology prognosticate Tools.Examples of such projects will be provided. Your team is required to present the distribute and results of your project during the scheduled times in class. Progress presentations should not exceed 20 minutes and the final presentation will be limited to 45 minutes. You in any case will need to submit a report which should follow TFSC journal guidelines for a journal paper. Your report should include a literature search justifying the topic and methods used. CASES 1. strategic Planning at get together piece of land Service, David A. Garvin, Lynne C. Levesque, Product 306002 2. foretelling the bridal of a New Product, Elie Ofek, Product 505062 AND call the Adoption of E-Books, Elie Ofek, Peter Wickersham, Product Number 9-505-063 3. Illinoi s Superconductor Corp. prognostication Demand for Superconducting Filters, Mohanbir Sawhney, Lisa Damkroger, Greg McGuirk, Julie Milbratz, John Rountree, Product KEL096 READINGS launching to engineering anticipation 1. Linstone, H. A. , TFSC 1969-1999. technological Forecasting and genial Change, majority 62, final payments 1-2, August-September 1999, Pages 1-8. 2. Ayres, R. U. What have we erudite? technological Forecasting and friendly Change, garishness 62, passings 1-2, August-September 1999, Pages 9-12. 3. Martino, J. P. , Thirty years of change and stability. proficient Forecasting and kind Change, muckle 62, youngs 1-2, August-September 1999, Pages 13-18. 4. Porter, A. L. , Tech forecasting an empirical perspective. technological Forecasting and Social Change, quite a little 62, retires 1-2, August-September 1999, Pages 19-28. 5. Linstone, H. A. , The 21st speed of light Everyman as Faust technology, terrorism, and the multiple perspectives approach. exp ert Forecasting and Social Change, mass 70, reveal 3, prove 2003, Pages 283-296. applied science Forecasting Techniques 6. Mishra, Somnath, S. G Deshmukh and Prem Vrat, twinned of technological forecasting technique to a technology , scientific Forecasting and Social Change, peck 69, extend 1, January 2002, Pages 1-27. 7. Technology forthcomings depth psychology Methods Working Group, Technology emergings analysis Toward desegregation of the field and new methods, scientific Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 71, Issue 3, certify 2004, Pages 287-303. 8. Silberglitt, R. , Hove, A. , and Shulman, P. Analysis of US energy scenarios Meta-scenarios, pathways, and policy implications. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 70, Issue 4, May 2003, Pages 297-315. 9. Rowe, G. and G. Wright, The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool Issues and analysis, internationalist journal of Forecasting, Volume 15, Issue 4, October 1999, Pages 353-375. 10. Lena Borjeson, M attias Hojer, Karl-Henrik Dreborg, Tomas Ekvall and Goran Finnveden, Scenario types and techniques Towards a users guide, Futures, Volume 38, Issue 7, September 2006, Pages 723-739. 11. Winebrake, J. J. , and Creswick, B. P. The future of hydrogen fueling systems for transportation An action of perspective-based scenario analysis using the analytic hierarchy process, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 70, Issue 4, May 2003, Pages 359-384. 12. Sager, B. , Scenarios on the Future of Biotechnology. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 68, Issue 2, October 2001, Pages 109-129. 13. Modis, T. , Technological forecasting at the stock market. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 62, Issue 3, November 1999, Pages 173-202. 14. Devezas, Tessaleno C. , Harold A. Linstone and Humberto J.S. Santos, The growth dynamics of the Internet and the long wave theory, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 72, Issue 8, October 2005, Pages 913-9 35. 15. Ilonen, Jarmo, Joni-Kristian Kamarainen, Kaisu Puumalainen, Sanna Sundqvist and Heikki Kalviainen, Toward automatic forecasts for diffusion of innovations, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 73, Issue 2, February 2006, Pages 182-198. 16. Martino, Joseph P. , A comparison of two composite measures of technology , Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 44, Issue 2, September 1993, Pages 147-159.uphill Technology Forecasting Techniques 17. Inman, Oliver Lane, Timothy R. Anderson and Robert R. Harmon, Predicting U. S. jet hotshot aircraft introductions from 1944 to 1982 A dogfight between relapse and TFDEA, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 73, Issue 9, November 2006, Pages 1178-1187. 18. Anderson, Timothy, Rolf Fare, Shawna Grosskopf, Lane Inman and Xiaoyu Song, Further inquiry of Moores law with data envelopment analysis, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 69, Issue 5, June 2002, Pages 465-477. 19. Barley, S. R. , What Can We Learn from the History of Technology.Journal of Engineering and Technology Management, Volume 15, Issue 4, September 1998, Pages 237-255. 20. Bowonder, B. , T. Miyake, and B. Muralidharan, Predicting the future Lessons from evolutionary theory, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 62, Issues 1-2, August-September 1999, Pages 51-62. 21. Guice, J. , shrewd the Future The Culture of New Trends in Science and Technology. Research Policy, Volume 28, Issue 1, January 1999, Pages 81-98. 22. Phaal, R. , Farrukh, C. J. P. , and Probert, D. R. , Technology Roadmapping A Planning cloth for Evolution and Revolution.Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 71, Issues 1-2, January-February 2004, Pages 5-26. 23. Kayal, A. , Measuring the Pace of Technological Process Implication for Technological Forecasting. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 60, Issue 3, March 1999, Pages 237-245. 24. T. U. Daim, G. Rueda, H. Martin, and P. Gerdsri, Forecasting Emerging Technologies occasion of Bibliometrics and Patent Analysis, Technology Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 73, Issue 8, October 2006, Pages 981-1012. 25. Watts, R. J. and A. L. Porter, Innovation Forecasting.Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 56, Issue 1, September 1997, Pages 25-47. SCHEDULE Subjects to be CoveredAssignment/Readings 1/4 Teams Formed 1/11 Introduction to Technology Forecasting Technology Planning Case content 1 Strategic Planning at United Parcel Service Case set and Presentations Article backchat Articles 1-5 1/18UNIVERSITY unkindly 1/25 Extrapolation by statistical regression knob Speaker Jisun Kim Project project Presentations 2/1 Delphi, Analogy, Scenarios, Environment Monitoring, step-up Curves In Class Exercise cable TV Diffusion Article Discussion ?Articles 6-16 2/8 Case require 2 Forecasting the Adoption of a New Product Case preparation and Presentations Project Progress Presentations 2/15 Emerging Technol ogy Forecasting Methods TFDEA Guest Speaker Tim Anderson 2/22 ?Emerging Technology Forecasting Methods Bibliometrics, Patent Searches, Article Discussion? ?Articles 17-25 3/1 Project Results Presentations 3/8 Case Study 3 Illinois Superconductor Corp. Forecasting Demand for Superconducting Filters Case Preparation and Presentations 3/15 concluding Reports